As i am burning out preparing for COSYNE i've decided to add some noise of a more pleasant variety. If you're in London and like to punctuate good music with beer and bayes please join me:
http://www.last.fm/event/862561
(this one is a maybe as some figures must be made today)
These are definites:
http://www.last.fm/event/915770
http://www.last.fm/event/908623
Thursday, February 19, 2009
iPhone and Gmail Properly Configured
To make sure that things you trash on you iphone show up in your gmail trash and messages you send show up in your gmail sent folder follow these instructions:
http://5thirtyone.com/archives/862
http://5thirtyone.com/archives/862
Saturday, February 14, 2009
Better iPhone Calendar/Contacts Sync via Google
So to set this up you first should backup you contacts. The easiest way to do this is to sync you iphone contacts with google through itunes. Plug in your phone, open up itunes and goto the info tab. Select sync with google (and make sure your computer has internet access). Enter google username and password and then hit the sync button. This will upload all you contacts from your iphone to you google contacts. Once that is done follow the instructions found here to setup over the air syncing of google calendars and contacts.
Finally, open up the browser on you iphone and navagate to m.google.com/sync to select which of you google calendars will be synced with you phones calendar....easy as pie.
Finally, open up the browser on you iphone and navagate to m.google.com/sync to select which of you google calendars will be synced with you phones calendar....easy as pie.
Tuesday, February 10, 2009
Science and Politics (and Religion)
I have been meaning to write on this for sometime now, but not until reading Pure Pedantry's response to the "Rightful Place Project" was i finally motivated to do so. This is not yet a completed version so i am still taking constructive criticisms and will be doing some editing but here it is so far:
Science isn't about separating facts from non-facts. A fact is something that is *known* to be true. Unfortunately, as Laplace said, "One may even say, strictly speaking, that almost all our knowledge is only probable; and in the small number of things that we *claim* to know with certainty, the principles means of arriving at the truth, i.e. induction and analogy, are based on probabilities."
Experimentation produces facts which take the form of raw data, D, or observations. Science then is the art of generating and the means of comparing various hypothesis, H, which might have given rise to observations. The conclusions of science can, in principle, take two forms: (1) the probability distribution on the hypothesis space given your data, p(H|D), or, more usefully, (2) a posterior predictive model,
p(D'|D,{H}) = sum_H p(D'|H)p(H|D),
which gives the relative likelihood of future observations, D'.
Now, one might be tempted to say that, if a particular hypothesis is much more probable than all others under consideration, then it is true. However, this ignores one of the most important features of the scientific process: the possibility of newer and better theories (and also novel domains of measurement). As such, I fell that it is best say that a hypothesis is never true, only better than another competing hypothesis.
But even this statement isn't terribly useful. The utility of science is in the prediction of future outcomes, the p(D'|D,{H}). Latching onto the single, "best" hypothesis can lead one to ignore outliers, "Black Swans" if you prefer, as well as overconfidence in one's predictions. This should be avoided if decisions are to be made. Since this is one of the two functions of policy makers in our society, it is important not that scientists provide "facts" but rather predictions complete with relative likelihood assessments that take into account ALL the data and a broad range of theories.
Which brings me to my view on the exact nature of the relationship between science and politics. As you may have guessed, i see this in a decision theoretic framework. A decision takes into account two things predicted outcome and utility.
a_opt = argmax_a = argmax_a sum_R sum_s R(o,a)*p(o|a,s,D)p(s|D)
where:
a_opt is the optimal action or decision
is the expected reward given an action and all the observational data.
R(o,a) is the Reward or negative cost of a given outcome, o, and action, a, taken with the intent of achieving that outcome.
p(o|a,s,D) is the likelihood of a particular outcome given action a, and state of the world s.
p(s|D) is the likelihood that the world is in a current state s, given all the observational data, D, obtained to date.
Science regulates only the probability functions which are conditioned upon the data.
Politics has two functions: The first is to compute the reward function R(o,a). In a democracy this might be accomplished by averaging over the reward functions of the people, but is most often accomplished by averaging over the reward functions that politicians have, slightly weighted by the reward functions that politicians think that the people "should" have, whatever that means. The second function of politics is then actually make the decision which is simply taking the arg max over the expected Reward.
Now in principle, politicians should not be telling people what they should value, each individuals personal ethic should be doing that. Since there is no normative solution to the problem of objective function selection (sry Rand) and reward starts with, R, I will call this religion, with a small 'r' to separate it from the kind where a clergy man tells you what to value. Thus properly understood and executed, politics should only be implementing the decision based upon an average over objective or reward functions. Thus,
politics = argmax_Decisions religion(a,o) * science(o|a,D)
it couldn't be simpler :P
Anyway, i will fill this out with an addenda regarding the funding loop later.
Science isn't about separating facts from non-facts. A fact is something that is *known* to be true. Unfortunately, as Laplace said, "One may even say, strictly speaking, that almost all our knowledge is only probable; and in the small number of things that we *claim* to know with certainty, the principles means of arriving at the truth, i.e. induction and analogy, are based on probabilities."
Experimentation produces facts which take the form of raw data, D, or observations. Science then is the art of generating and the means of comparing various hypothesis, H, which might have given rise to observations. The conclusions of science can, in principle, take two forms: (1) the probability distribution on the hypothesis space given your data, p(H|D), or, more usefully, (2) a posterior predictive model,
p(D'|D,{H}) = sum_H p(D'|H)p(H|D),
which gives the relative likelihood of future observations, D'.
Now, one might be tempted to say that, if a particular hypothesis is much more probable than all others under consideration, then it is true. However, this ignores one of the most important features of the scientific process: the possibility of newer and better theories (and also novel domains of measurement). As such, I fell that it is best say that a hypothesis is never true, only better than another competing hypothesis.
But even this statement isn't terribly useful. The utility of science is in the prediction of future outcomes, the p(D'|D,{H}). Latching onto the single, "best" hypothesis can lead one to ignore outliers, "Black Swans" if you prefer, as well as overconfidence in one's predictions. This should be avoided if decisions are to be made. Since this is one of the two functions of policy makers in our society, it is important not that scientists provide "facts" but rather predictions complete with relative likelihood assessments that take into account ALL the data and a broad range of theories.
Which brings me to my view on the exact nature of the relationship between science and politics. As you may have guessed, i see this in a decision theoretic framework. A decision takes into account two things predicted outcome and utility.
a_opt = argmax_a = argmax_a sum_R sum_s R(o,a)*p(o|a,s,D)p(s|D)
where:
a_opt is the optimal action or decision
is the expected reward given an action and all the observational data.
R(o,a) is the Reward or negative cost of a given outcome, o, and action, a, taken with the intent of achieving that outcome.
p(o|a,s,D) is the likelihood of a particular outcome given action a, and state of the world s.
p(s|D) is the likelihood that the world is in a current state s, given all the observational data, D, obtained to date.
Science regulates only the probability functions which are conditioned upon the data.
Politics has two functions: The first is to compute the reward function R(o,a). In a democracy this might be accomplished by averaging over the reward functions of the people, but is most often accomplished by averaging over the reward functions that politicians have, slightly weighted by the reward functions that politicians think that the people "should" have, whatever that means. The second function of politics is then actually make the decision which is simply taking the arg max over the expected Reward.
Now in principle, politicians should not be telling people what they should value, each individuals personal ethic should be doing that. Since there is no normative solution to the problem of objective function selection (sry Rand) and reward starts with, R, I will call this religion, with a small 'r' to separate it from the kind where a clergy man tells you what to value. Thus properly understood and executed, politics should only be implementing the decision based upon an average over objective or reward functions. Thus,
politics = argmax_Decisions religion(a,o) * science(o|a,D)
it couldn't be simpler :P
Anyway, i will fill this out with an addenda regarding the funding loop later.
Monday, January 5, 2009
Sync files between you Computer and your iPhone (sort of)
New and free cloud computing service soonr allows you to designate a folder on you pc or mac which will then be available to you on your iphone or (when wirelessly connected to the internet) on your ipod touch. Its great for putting papers and presentations and maps and such onto your iphone, but unlike the (not so free) AirShare app it doesn't work when offline (sry iPod Touch users).
Anyway, to get things running, install the soonr app from the app store and setup an account through it. Then you will be emailed instructions on how to install the client software on you pc or mac. Careful though, by default it want to also backup all the files in your my documents directory, but you can turn this off during the setup.
UPDATE: So it turns out that dropbox has a reasonable mobile interface accessible through safari...not as nice as soonr's app, but just as effective. Not only that dropbox is fully cross platform supporting Linux, MacOSX, and Windows file syncing. So I am rating it the more powerful utility.
Anyway, to get things running, install the soonr app from the app store and setup an account through it. Then you will be emailed instructions on how to install the client software on you pc or mac. Careful though, by default it want to also backup all the files in your my documents directory, but you can turn this off during the setup.
UPDATE: So it turns out that dropbox has a reasonable mobile interface accessible through safari...not as nice as soonr's app, but just as effective. Not only that dropbox is fully cross platform supporting Linux, MacOSX, and Windows file syncing. So I am rating it the more powerful utility.
Friday, November 14, 2008
Bayesian Solutions to Everyday Problems
Ok. This is a new theme i have been considering writing about. It should be fun but what i need are evveryday problems for which information is uncertain and a decision must be made. Here is a very simple and oft discussed example. Suppose that you are on the show Let's Make a Deal. The scenario is as follows. You are shown three curtains and told behind the curtains are three prizes. One of the prizes is valuable the other two are generally not valuable. You are asked to pick a curtain. At this point you have a 1/3 chance of having selected the curtain with the prize behind it. You are then shown that behind one of the curtains that you did not choose is one of the crummy prizes. You are then asked whether you would like to stick with the curtain you initially chose or switch and choose the other remaining curtain.
If you stick with your original choice you still have a 1/3 chance of winning. On teh other hand, the prize had a 2/3 chance of being in one of teh other two curtains. This remains true even after you have been shown that a crummy prize was behind one of those two. As a result, the remaining curtain of the two still has a 2/3 chance of having the prize. Thus switching doubles your chances of winning. Neato!
If you stick with your original choice you still have a 1/3 chance of winning. On teh other hand, the prize had a 2/3 chance of being in one of teh other two curtains. This remains true even after you have been shown that a crummy prize was behind one of those two. As a result, the remaining curtain of the two still has a 2/3 chance of having the prize. Thus switching doubles your chances of winning. Neato!
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
iPod Touch/iPhone Update
By popular request, here is another post on the configuration of my iPod Touch and how i make use of it to enhance by my personal and professional lives. This post will be organized into two parts. The first will deal list my official appstore apps and webbased tools which i use. The second will just give a very quick overview of how to jailbreak the latest OS (and unlock for 2G phones) and the list which unofficial apps I find useful. FYI, its an increasingly small number these days.
Ok. My apples store apps:
(1) Google Calendar (and/or Contacts and/or Mail) syncing with Microsoft Exchange. I used to use the jailbreak app NemusSync for this purpose but the free NuevaSync services works even better. Directions for its use can be found here, but the essence of the procedure is that you create a free account with nuevasync.com give it permission to read and update your google calendar (by ticking an option). Then on your iPhone, goto Settings -> Mail, Contacts, Calendar. Then add an account select Microsoft exchange and enter you newly made nuevasync.com info. Anyway, detailed instructions can be found at nuevasync.com.
(2) Mocha VNC: This is a versatile, free, VNC client for your iPhone. I run the (also free) TightVNC server along with no-ip on my PC and this combination allows me use the iPod touch to login to my windows desktop. Its primary function is to check on numerical jobs I am running and possibly start new ones. For the free version, you lack the use of the right mouse button in windows, but the keyboard works just fine. Instructions to install tight VNC for your PC are to be found here. MAC users have a VNC server already their machines which just need to be setup. If the PC (or MAC) that intend to use has a dynamic ip address. I recommend signing up for a free account at no-ip.com which effectively gives you a fixed ip address for your computer (after you install a bit of software). Just sign up here and follow the instructions.
(3) Itunes Remote. Use you iPhone as a remote control for iTunes one a machine on a local network. Just start it up and follow the instructions. Works perfectly, is great for parties.
(3) Fring. Turns your iPhone into a internet phone allowing you to make calls (or send instant messages) using Skype or a SIP account. For SIP service i use Gizmo. But its the same cost as skype out (~2cents a minute for international calls) so if you Prefer skype it is unnecessary to sign up for it.
(4) AirSharing. Basically, if you want to read papers while you fly, or carry around maps of the subway on you iphone for those occasions when you have neither cell service or wifi access, then this is the program for you. Once installed and properly configured it makes your iphone or touch show up as a networked hard drive on your local area network. Using your laptop you can then drag and drop files to your iPhone/iPod Touch for later viewing. Supports PDF's, Word Docs, Excel, and PPT so you can even upload a presentation and give the smallest talk ever. Install the app through the app store and then follow the instructions which appear when you start up the app for the first time.
(5) Simplify Mobile Media. This app lets you stream the music in you iTunes library to your device over the internet or edge. Useful for when you want to hear a particular song that you didn't happen to squeeze onto your 8Gig device. Instructions for setup are here, but the procedure is fairly simple. You sign up for a free account, install some software onto the PC from which you would like to stream your iTunes library, download the Simplify Media app from the app store, start it up, and login with your newly created username and password.
(6) Orb the easiest way to stream video (of just about any format) from your pc to your iPhone or iPod Touch. It works just like Simplify, but it uses the safari browser instead of have an apple store app interface. So it also requires that you set up a free orb account, found here. After signing up it will ask you to install some software on your PC and point it do the directories when your videos/music/documents that you want access to over wifi or edge. To access the videos you then point your iPhone's browser to mycast.orb.com and then enter your username and password. Note, OrbLive is a $6 app at the app store which provides a nicer interface than the web interface, but I dont think is worth the money.
(7) Google Reader. I like google reader and the mobile interface is pretty good, so I use it. Just navigate to www.google.com select reader at the top and login. Easy.
(8) GraphCalc. A graphing calculator. Useful when you need it. I've used it once to plot a few functions as a sanity check.
(9) NowPlaying. Useful for finding movies and movie times.
(10) Games: Sodoku, Tap Tap Revolution, Trace, MazeFinger, Word Wrap. Aurora Feint, Sol Free
(11) TouchType: Lets you use a landscape (big) keyboard for writing long emails. Review is here.
JailBreaking.
Directions can be found here. But i will give a short overview.
Note: you can only unlock 2G phones for use with any sim chip.
Regardless of whether you've a MAC or PC the procedure for jailbreaking and unlocking your iPhone is relatively simple and involves downloading a copy of the latest operating system provided by apple. Found here for iPhone or here for the iPod Touch
Assuming that you have used iTunes to upgrade to the latest version of the device's operating system the one you want is the one at the end of the list.
You then download and running a program called QuickPwn or WinPwn depending upon whether you have a MAC or PC. Files found here for MAC and here for PC.
Basically you just install the software run it and follow the instructions. The hardest step is putting your device into DFU mode. Which involves holding down the Home button (that's the big round one at the bottom) and then the power button (the little one on the top) for certain amounts of time and in a certain order and sometimes together. But its all in the directions you will receive. To unlock your 2G phone you may be asked to download two additional files, which can be found here: Bootloader version 3.9 and Bootloader version 4.6
Once you've successfully jailbroken you device you have a few new icons Cydia and Installer. I only use Cydia so thats what i will talk about. The first thing you want to do Click on Cydia and install any upgrades that are recommended. After that i recommend going selecting Home at the bottom of the screen and then selecting "Featured apps". I have installed MobileTerminal and SSH as well as BossPrefs. You need the last one if you have SSH as it allows you to turn the SSH server on and off. I haven't tried Netatalk + MobileFinder may also be useful for those you don't want to pay for AirShare. I haven't used it but supposedly PdaNet is also a nice way to convert your phone into a wireless router. You can then point your laptop to your iPhone and get internet access on the laptop through your iPhone Edge network.
Have fun.
Ok. My apples store apps:
(1) Google Calendar (and/or Contacts and/or Mail) syncing with Microsoft Exchange. I used to use the jailbreak app NemusSync for this purpose but the free NuevaSync services works even better. Directions for its use can be found here, but the essence of the procedure is that you create a free account with nuevasync.com give it permission to read and update your google calendar (by ticking an option). Then on your iPhone, goto Settings -> Mail, Contacts, Calendar. Then add an account select Microsoft exchange and enter you newly made nuevasync.com info. Anyway, detailed instructions can be found at nuevasync.com.
(2) Mocha VNC: This is a versatile, free, VNC client for your iPhone. I run the (also free) TightVNC server along with no-ip on my PC and this combination allows me use the iPod touch to login to my windows desktop. Its primary function is to check on numerical jobs I am running and possibly start new ones. For the free version, you lack the use of the right mouse button in windows, but the keyboard works just fine. Instructions to install tight VNC for your PC are to be found here. MAC users have a VNC server already their machines which just need to be setup. If the PC (or MAC) that intend to use has a dynamic ip address. I recommend signing up for a free account at no-ip.com which effectively gives you a fixed ip address for your computer (after you install a bit of software). Just sign up here and follow the instructions.
(3) Itunes Remote. Use you iPhone as a remote control for iTunes one a machine on a local network. Just start it up and follow the instructions. Works perfectly, is great for parties.
(3) Fring. Turns your iPhone into a internet phone allowing you to make calls (or send instant messages) using Skype or a SIP account. For SIP service i use Gizmo. But its the same cost as skype out (~2cents a minute for international calls) so if you Prefer skype it is unnecessary to sign up for it.
(4) AirSharing. Basically, if you want to read papers while you fly, or carry around maps of the subway on you iphone for those occasions when you have neither cell service or wifi access, then this is the program for you. Once installed and properly configured it makes your iphone or touch show up as a networked hard drive on your local area network. Using your laptop you can then drag and drop files to your iPhone/iPod Touch for later viewing. Supports PDF's, Word Docs, Excel, and PPT so you can even upload a presentation and give the smallest talk ever. Install the app through the app store and then follow the instructions which appear when you start up the app for the first time.
(5) Simplify Mobile Media. This app lets you stream the music in you iTunes library to your device over the internet or edge. Useful for when you want to hear a particular song that you didn't happen to squeeze onto your 8Gig device. Instructions for setup are here, but the procedure is fairly simple. You sign up for a free account, install some software onto the PC from which you would like to stream your iTunes library, download the Simplify Media app from the app store, start it up, and login with your newly created username and password.
(6) Orb the easiest way to stream video (of just about any format) from your pc to your iPhone or iPod Touch. It works just like Simplify, but it uses the safari browser instead of have an apple store app interface. So it also requires that you set up a free orb account, found here. After signing up it will ask you to install some software on your PC and point it do the directories when your videos/music/documents that you want access to over wifi or edge. To access the videos you then point your iPhone's browser to mycast.orb.com and then enter your username and password. Note, OrbLive is a $6 app at the app store which provides a nicer interface than the web interface, but I dont think is worth the money.
(7) Google Reader. I like google reader and the mobile interface is pretty good, so I use it. Just navigate to www.google.com select reader at the top and login. Easy.
(8) GraphCalc. A graphing calculator. Useful when you need it. I've used it once to plot a few functions as a sanity check.
(9) NowPlaying. Useful for finding movies and movie times.
(10) Games: Sodoku, Tap Tap Revolution, Trace, MazeFinger, Word Wrap. Aurora Feint, Sol Free
(11) TouchType: Lets you use a landscape (big) keyboard for writing long emails. Review is here.
JailBreaking.
Directions can be found here. But i will give a short overview.
Note: you can only unlock 2G phones for use with any sim chip.
Regardless of whether you've a MAC or PC the procedure for jailbreaking and unlocking your iPhone is relatively simple and involves downloading a copy of the latest operating system provided by apple. Found here for iPhone or here for the iPod Touch
Assuming that you have used iTunes to upgrade to the latest version of the device's operating system the one you want is the one at the end of the list.
You then download and running a program called QuickPwn or WinPwn depending upon whether you have a MAC or PC. Files found here for MAC and here for PC.
Basically you just install the software run it and follow the instructions. The hardest step is putting your device into DFU mode. Which involves holding down the Home button (that's the big round one at the bottom) and then the power button (the little one on the top) for certain amounts of time and in a certain order and sometimes together. But its all in the directions you will receive. To unlock your 2G phone you may be asked to download two additional files, which can be found here: Bootloader version 3.9 and Bootloader version 4.6
Once you've successfully jailbroken you device you have a few new icons Cydia and Installer. I only use Cydia so thats what i will talk about. The first thing you want to do Click on Cydia and install any upgrades that are recommended. After that i recommend going selecting Home at the bottom of the screen and then selecting "Featured apps". I have installed MobileTerminal and SSH as well as BossPrefs. You need the last one if you have SSH as it allows you to turn the SSH server on and off. I haven't tried Netatalk + MobileFinder may also be useful for those you don't want to pay for AirShare. I haven't used it but supposedly PdaNet is also a nice way to convert your phone into a wireless router. You can then point your laptop to your iPhone and get internet access on the laptop through your iPhone Edge network.
Have fun.
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