tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29379414689824366792024-03-19T06:07:21.313-07:00Just Add NoiseBecause the only way to flatten someone's prior is with a steamroller.Bayesian Empirimancerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18110557307446065462noreply@blogger.comBlogger30125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2937941468982436679.post-73551283872791776522010-11-08T14:07:00.000-08:002010-11-08T14:29:43.480-08:00Just an Idea to Throw Out ThereBayesian Non-Parametric Models as the Appropriate Null Hypothesis.<br />
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EX: <a href="http://www.cs.umass.edu/~wallach/talks/learning_dbns.pdf">The Cascading Indian Buffet Process</a> <br />
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I was doing some casual web surfing when I came across a set of slides Hanna Wallach made regarding a generative model for deep belief networks (link above). I always liked DBM's but felt that they were almost too general. Add enough layers, give it enough data and they can do just about anything. <br />
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That's when something which is probably obvious to many people doing Bayesian Non-Parametrics finally occurred to me: The cascade indian buffet process may constitute the Bayesian equivalent of a null hypothesis (at least for directed graphical models of this kind). After all, given this directed structure, these models have basically no assumptions built into them. None-the-less they are quite complex, much more so than the standard null hypothesis of 'no relationship' which is almost surely false. Structured models appropriate to the data should at least be better than these assumption free models. This is a sad statement for data for which these models actually are the best performers as it suggest that when the cascading IBP is the best performer we should probably conclude that, in those cases, we really don't understand squat about the mechanism which is generating the data. <br />
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Anyway, just a thought... and a Chardonnay induced one at that.Bayesian Empirimancerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18110557307446065462noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2937941468982436679.post-87244948227983123092010-02-21T12:57:00.000-08:002010-02-21T12:57:17.866-08:00Stop saying that it's JUST noiseThere is a comical trend these days of labeling data incompatible with ones theories or views as 'just noise' or as 'simply random fluctuations'. The suggestion implicit statements such as these is that you should somehow discount that data point. This is the confirmational bias at work and is utter folly. Just as every data point compatible with a particular hypothesis should increase your degree of belief in the theory, so also should every disconfirmational data point should decrease that degree of belief. Perhaps not by much, but it must be taken into account and treated with equal weight as all previous data points. <br />
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This view is hardly novel, but it is worth repeating. Now that I have you nodding in agreement (and likely questioning the depth of this post) there is one ever so slightly more subtle point I would like to politely make. <br />
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IT IS NEVER *JUST* NOISE. <br />
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The noise is not just some random fluctuations that obscure whatever signal our theory predicts. No, noise is how we model ignorance. Now it may be that there is some fundamental limit to our knowledge about something (as in quantum mechanics), but, in general, the physics is in the fluctuations and the things we should be trying to understand tomorrow is the stuff we were forced to label as noise today. Even in the presence of rational inference, calling something noise and suggesting we forget about it is the equivalent of declaring the scientific process finished and that is something I hope we never do, regardless of how politically convenient it might be.Bayesian Empirimancerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18110557307446065462noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2937941468982436679.post-4148063965792985872010-02-21T12:45:00.000-08:002010-03-12T09:54:19.150-08:00Q: What do you call a theory that is equally compatible with any data set?Unscientific is the polite answer.<br />
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<a href='http://www.time.com/time/health/article/0,8599,1905102,00.html'>Time Magazine Then (June 17, 2009):</a><br />
'Warming will make skiing, ice-skating and snowmobiling pastimes of the past in many areas of the Northeast, decimating the multibillion-dollarwinter-sports industry.'<br />
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<a href='http://www.time.com/time/health/article/0,8599,1962294,00.html
'>Time Magazine Now (Feb 10, 2010):</a><br />
'Climate change could in fact make such massive snowstorms more common, even as the world continues to warm.'<br />
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National Geographic has an equally short memory.<br />
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<a href='http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2008/01/080131-west-droughts.html
'>National Geographic Then (2009):</a><br />
'Droughts will become more common'<br />
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<a href='http://news.nationalgeographic.co.uk/news/2010/02/100213-snowstorms-global-warming-climate-change-snowpocalypse/
'>National Geographic Now (Feb. 2010):</a><br />
'Scientists say global warming is the main culprit behind this month's eastern-U.S. snowstorms—and it could cause more heavy snowfalls in future winters.'<br />
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Not credible on any topic (other than <a href='http://photography.nationalgeographic.com/photography/'>pretty</a> <a href='http://www.time.com/time/photoessays/'>pictures</a>)Bayesian Empirimancerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18110557307446065462noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2937941468982436679.post-64688726637629325972009-10-07T05:41:00.000-07:002009-10-07T09:19:55.325-07:00Unbiased but Probably an UnderestimateOver at mind hacks, Vaughan asks, <a href='http://www.mindhacks.com/blog/2009/09/it_always_seems_wors.html'>why it always seems worse than you think?</a> It turns out that its proper Bayesian statistical reasoning. The frequentist constructs unbiased estimates in the limit of large data. For finite data sets these estimates might be unbiased in some sense, but that doesn't mean that the true value is going to be just as likely to be greater than the estimate or less than the estimate. The median estimate has this property, by definition, but in most cases of interest the median is significantly higher than the mean or the maximum a posterori estimate. This seems to be generically the case when estimating quantities which are small. For example, consider two cases where we are estimating a small quantity. In one case, I sample from a Poisson distribution with mean obtained from a gamma distribution. In the other case, I assume a beta prior (uniform prior in particular) for the probability p of binomially distributed random variable. Because these are conjugate priors the posterior distributions are also gamma and beta respectively and we can compare the probability that the true value of the associated means conditioned on observing K examples (normalized by N samples in the Binomial case) is greater than the maximum a posteriori or mean estimates.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjai3ckODu5KOhRnnAp5Q5hyphenhyphen8kurDRlDv41K7RD_FcLgBj9kvDkDL1TdE1DKfqqKkDzKk0hpvALzIoRuJcxItTcROWEyoZRczTj8fi3hLF-40iMNMsJfWcAb9uxZLZ4eHKxzYJsYf-rk2w/s1600-h/underestimation.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 239px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjai3ckODu5KOhRnnAp5Q5hyphenhyphen8kurDRlDv41K7RD_FcLgBj9kvDkDL1TdE1DKfqqKkDzKk0hpvALzIoRuJcxItTcROWEyoZRczTj8fi3hLF-40iMNMsJfWcAb9uxZLZ4eHKxzYJsYf-rk2w/s320/underestimation.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5389837649913360130" /></a><br /><br /><br />Clearly both MAP and MEAN estimates of rare events are likely to be underestimates given finite data. The same is true for ML estimates. In the binomial case a uniform prior was used. In the poisson case the results are independent of the prior... unless i made a silly error putting this together in 15 minutes :) For the binomial case, a Jeffrey's prior also seems to have this property despite heavily favoring small probabilities...Bayesian Empirimancerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18110557307446065462noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2937941468982436679.post-11878105854406145132009-02-23T04:17:00.000-08:002009-02-23T04:22:50.778-08:00Change Reply to Address on IphoneAnnoyed that you iphone uses your gmail address as the reply to address. I was. Here's the fix. Goto settings, Mail on you iphone and deactivate your gmail account. Then click on add account. Now don't click Google mail, but instead click other. On the first page put the desired return email address in the Address area, but use your gmail password for the password slot. Then just configure your imap and smtp settings using your gmail address and password as usual. Note, the email address you put into the first slot will have to be a gmail authorized address. You can authorize an address from the settings page at mail.google.comBayesian Empirimancerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18110557307446065462noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2937941468982436679.post-65824776375038862812009-02-19T06:30:00.000-08:002009-02-19T06:37:50.087-08:00Adding the Noise...As i am burning out preparing for COSYNE i've decided to add some noise of a more pleasant variety. If you're in London and like to punctuate good music with beer and bayes please join me:<br /><br />http://www.last.fm/event/862561 <br />(this one is a maybe as some figures must be made today)<br /><br /><br />These are definites:<br /><br />http://www.last.fm/event/915770<br /><br />http://www.last.fm/event/908623Bayesian Empirimancerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18110557307446065462noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2937941468982436679.post-13378241757390431512009-02-19T06:28:00.000-08:002009-02-19T06:29:49.733-08:00iPhone and Gmail Properly ConfiguredTo make sure that things you trash on you iphone show up in your gmail trash and messages you send show up in your gmail sent folder follow these instructions:<br /><br />http://5thirtyone.com/archives/862Bayesian Empirimancerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18110557307446065462noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2937941468982436679.post-50371181232572689142009-02-14T07:29:00.000-08:002009-02-14T07:38:24.343-08:00Better iPhone Calendar/Contacts Sync via GoogleSo to set this up you first should backup you contacts. The easiest way to do this is to sync you iphone contacts with google through itunes. Plug in your phone, open up itunes and goto the info tab. Select sync with google (and make sure your computer has internet access). Enter google username and password and then hit the sync button. This will upload all you contacts from your iphone to you google contacts. Once that is done follow the instructions found <a href="http://www.google.com/mobile/apple/sync.html">here</a> to setup over the air syncing of google calendars and contacts. <br /><br />Finally, open up the browser on you iphone and navagate to m.google.com/sync to select which of you google calendars will be synced with you phones calendar....easy as pie.Bayesian Empirimancerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18110557307446065462noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2937941468982436679.post-20507877972952366752009-02-10T06:02:00.000-08:002009-02-10T06:05:26.305-08:00Science and Politics (and Religion)I have been meaning to write on this for sometime now, but not until reading Pure Pedantry's <a href="http://scienceblogs.com/purepedantry/2009/01/the_rightful_place_project_sci.php">response</a> to the <a href="http://scienceblogs.com/rightfulplace.php">"Rightful Place Project"</a> was i finally motivated to do so. This is not yet a completed version so i am still taking constructive criticisms and will be doing some editing but here it is so far:<br /><br /><br /><br />Science isn't about separating facts from non-facts. A fact is something that is *known* to be true. Unfortunately, as Laplace said, "One may even say, strictly speaking, that almost all our knowledge is only probable; and in the small number of things that we *claim* to know with certainty, the principles means of arriving at the truth, i.e. induction and analogy, are based on probabilities."<br /><br />Experimentation produces facts which take the form of raw data, D, or observations. Science then is the art of generating and the means of comparing various hypothesis, H, which might have given rise to observations. The conclusions of science can, in principle, take two forms: (1) the probability distribution on the hypothesis space given your data, p(H|D), or, more usefully, (2) a posterior predictive model,<br /><br />p(D'|D,{H}) = sum_H p(D'|H)p(H|D),<br /><br />which gives the relative likelihood of future observations, D'.<br /><br />Now, one might be tempted to say that, if a particular hypothesis is much more probable than all others under consideration, then it is true. However, this ignores one of the most important features of the scientific process: the possibility of newer and better theories (and also novel domains of measurement). As such, I fell that it is best say that a hypothesis is never true, only better than another competing hypothesis.<br /><br />But even this statement isn't terribly useful. The utility of science is in the prediction of future outcomes, the p(D'|D,{H}). Latching onto the single, "best" hypothesis can lead one to ignore outliers, "Black Swans" if you prefer, as well as overconfidence in one's predictions. This should be avoided if decisions are to be made. Since this is one of the two functions of policy makers in our society, it is important not that scientists provide "facts" but rather predictions complete with relative likelihood assessments that take into account ALL the data and a broad range of theories.<br /><br />Which brings me to my view on the exact nature of the relationship between science and politics. As you may have guessed, i see this in a decision theoretic framework. A decision takes into account two things predicted outcome and utility.<br /><br />a_opt = argmax_a = argmax_a sum_R sum_s R(o,a)*p(o|a,s,D)p(s|D)<br /><br />where:<br /><br />a_opt is the optimal action or decision<br /><br />is the expected reward given an action and all the observational data.<br /><br />R(o,a) is the Reward or negative cost of a given outcome, o, and action, a, taken with the intent of achieving that outcome.<br /><br />p(o|a,s,D) is the likelihood of a particular outcome given action a, and state of the world s.<br /><br />p(s|D) is the likelihood that the world is in a current state s, given all the observational data, D, obtained to date.<br /><br />Science regulates only the probability functions which are conditioned upon the data.<br /><br />Politics has two functions: The first is to compute the reward function R(o,a). In a democracy this might be accomplished by averaging over the reward functions of the people, but is most often accomplished by averaging over the reward functions that politicians have, slightly weighted by the reward functions that politicians think that the people "should" have, whatever that means. The second function of politics is then actually make the decision which is simply taking the arg max over the expected Reward.<br /><br />Now in principle, politicians should not be telling people what they should value, each individuals personal ethic should be doing that. Since there is no normative solution to the problem of objective function selection (sry Rand) and reward starts with, R, I will call this religion, with a small 'r' to separate it from the kind where a clergy man tells you what to value. Thus properly understood and executed, politics should only be implementing the decision based upon an average over objective or reward functions. Thus,<br /><br />politics = argmax_Decisions religion(a,o) * science(o|a,D)<br /><br />it couldn't be simpler :P<br /><br />Anyway, i will fill this out with an addenda regarding the funding loop later.Bayesian Empirimancerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18110557307446065462noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2937941468982436679.post-87316926118601481002009-01-05T11:58:00.000-08:002009-01-06T03:21:57.358-08:00Sync files between you Computer and your iPhone (sort of)New and free cloud computing service <a href="http:///www.soonr.com">soonr</a> allows you to designate a folder on you pc or mac which will then be available to you on your iphone or (when wirelessly connected to the internet) on your ipod touch. Its great for putting papers and presentations and maps and such onto your iphone, but unlike the (not so free) AirShare app it doesn't work when offline (sry iPod Touch users). <br /><br />Anyway, to get things running, install the soonr app from the app store and setup an account through it. Then you will be emailed instructions on how to install the client software on you pc or mac. Careful though, by default it want to also backup all the files in your my documents directory, but you can turn this off during the setup.<br /><br /><br />UPDATE: So it turns out that <a href="http://www.getdropbox.com/">dropbox</a> has a reasonable mobile interface accessible through safari...not as nice as soonr's app, but just as effective. Not only that dropbox is fully cross platform supporting Linux, MacOSX, and Windows file syncing. So I am rating it the more powerful utility.Bayesian Empirimancerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18110557307446065462noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2937941468982436679.post-13420466775920674822008-11-14T07:59:00.000-08:002008-11-20T11:49:02.179-08:00Bayesian Solutions to Everyday ProblemsOk. This is a new theme i have been considering writing about. It should be fun but what i need are evveryday problems for which information is uncertain and a decision must be made. Here is a very simple and oft discussed example. Suppose that you are on the show Let's Make a Deal. The scenario is as follows. You are shown three curtains and told behind the curtains are three prizes. One of the prizes is valuable the other two are generally not valuable. You are asked to pick a curtain. At this point you have a 1/3 chance of having selected the curtain with the prize behind it. You are then shown that behind one of the curtains that you did not choose is one of the crummy prizes. You are then asked whether you would like to stick with the curtain you initially chose or switch and choose the other remaining curtain.<br /><br />If you stick with your original choice you still have a 1/3 chance of winning. On teh other hand, the prize had a 2/3 chance of being in one of teh other two curtains. This remains true even after you have been shown that a crummy prize was behind one of those two. As a result, the remaining curtain of the two still has a 2/3 chance of having the prize. Thus switching doubles your chances of winning. Neato!Bayesian Empirimancerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18110557307446065462noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2937941468982436679.post-38556619776332065452008-11-12T07:12:00.000-08:002008-11-20T11:41:56.152-08:00iPod Touch/iPhone UpdateBy popular request, here is another post on the configuration of my iPod Touch and how i make use of it to enhance by my personal and professional lives. This post will be organized into two parts. The first will deal list my official appstore apps and webbased tools which i use. The second will just give a very quick overview of how to jailbreak the latest OS (and unlock for 2G phones) and the list which unofficial apps I find useful. FYI, its an increasingly small number these days.<br /><br />Ok. My apples store apps:<br /><br />(1) Google Calendar (and/or Contacts and/or Mail) syncing with Microsoft Exchange. I used to use the jailbreak app NemusSync for this purpose but the free NuevaSync services works even better. Directions for its use can be found <a href="http://www.nuevasync.com/">here</a>, but the essence of the procedure is that you create a free account with nuevasync.com give it permission to read and update your google calendar (by ticking an option). Then on your iPhone, goto Settings -> Mail, Contacts, Calendar. Then add an account select Microsoft exchange and enter you newly made nuevasync.com info. Anyway, detailed instructions can be found at nuevasync.com. <br /><br />(2) Mocha VNC: This is a versatile, free, VNC client for your iPhone. I run the (also free) TightVNC server along with no-ip on my PC and this combination allows me use the iPod touch to login to my windows desktop. Its primary function is to check on numerical jobs I am running and possibly start new ones. For the free version, you lack the use of the right mouse button in windows, but the keyboard works just fine. Instructions to install tight VNC for your PC are to be found <a href="http://www.tightvnc.com/">here</a>. MAC users have a VNC server already their machines which just need to be setup. If the PC (or MAC) that intend to use has a dynamic ip address. I recommend signing up for a free account at no-ip.com which effectively gives you a fixed ip address for your computer (after you install a bit of software). Just sign up <a href="http://www.no-ip.com/">here</a> and follow the instructions. <br /><br />(3) Itunes Remote. Use you iPhone as a remote control for iTunes one a machine on a local network. Just start it up and follow the instructions. Works perfectly, is great for parties. <br /><br />(3) Fring. Turns your iPhone into a internet phone allowing you to make calls (or send instant messages) using Skype or a SIP account. For SIP service i use <a href="http://gizmo5.com/pc/">Gizmo</a>. But its the same cost as skype out (~2cents a minute for international calls) so if you Prefer skype it is unnecessary to sign up for it.<br /><br />(4) AirSharing. Basically, if you want to read papers while you fly, or carry around maps of the subway on you iphone for those occasions when you have neither cell service or wifi access, then this is the program for you. Once installed and properly configured it makes your iphone or touch show up as a networked hard drive on your local area network. Using your laptop you can then drag and drop files to your iPhone/iPod Touch for later viewing. Supports PDF's, Word Docs, Excel, and PPT so you can even upload a presentation and give the smallest talk ever. Install the app through the app store and then follow the instructions which appear when you start up the app for the first time. <br /><br />(5) Simplify Mobile Media. This app lets you stream the music in you iTunes library to your device over the internet or edge. Useful for when you want to hear a particular song that you didn't happen to squeeze onto your 8Gig device. Instructions for setup are <a href="http://www.simplifymedia.com/iphone.html">here</a>, but the procedure is fairly simple. You sign up for a free account, install some software onto the PC from which you would like to stream your iTunes library, download the Simplify Media app from the app store, start it up, and login with your newly created username and password. <br /><br />(6) Orb the easiest way to stream video (of just about any format) from your pc to your iPhone or iPod Touch. It works just like Simplify, but it uses the safari browser instead of have an apple store app interface. So it also requires that you set up a free orb account, found <a href="mycast.orb.com">here</a>. After signing up it will ask you to install some software on your PC and point it do the directories when your videos/music/documents that you want access to over wifi or edge. To access the videos you then point your iPhone's browser to mycast.orb.com and then enter your username and password. Note, OrbLive is a $6 app at the app store which provides a nicer interface than the web interface, but I dont think is worth the money.<br /><br />(7) Google Reader. I like google reader and the mobile interface is pretty good, so I use it. Just navigate to www.google.com select reader at the top and login. Easy.<br /><br />(8) GraphCalc. A graphing calculator. Useful when you need it. I've used it once to plot a few functions as a sanity check.<br /><br />(9) NowPlaying. Useful for finding movies and movie times. <br /><br />(10) Games: Sodoku, Tap Tap Revolution, Trace, MazeFinger, Word Wrap. Aurora Feint, Sol Free<br /><br />(11) TouchType: Lets you use a landscape (big) keyboard for writing long emails. Review is <a href="http://lifehacker.com/5094422/free-version-of-touchtype-email-app-now-available">here</a>.<br /><br />JailBreaking.<br /><br />Directions can be found <a href="http://woikr.com/apple/how-to-upgrade-and-unlock-your-iphone-2g/">here</a>. But i will give a short overview. <br /><br />Note: you can only unlock 2G phones for use with any sim chip.<br /><br />Regardless of whether you've a MAC or PC the procedure for jailbreaking and unlocking your iPhone is relatively simple and involves downloading a copy of the latest operating system provided by apple. Found here for <a href="http://www.iclarified.com/entry/index.php?enid=750">iPhone</a> or here for the <a href="http://www.iclarified.com/entry/index.php?enid=757">iPod Touch</a><br /><br />Assuming that you have used iTunes to upgrade to the latest version of the device's operating system the one you want is the one at the end of the list.<br /><br />You then download and running a program called QuickPwn or WinPwn depending upon whether you have a MAC or PC. Files found here for <a href="http://daten.gorgont.de/downloads/iphone/QuickPwn_1.1.dmg">MAC</a> and here for <a href="http://www.technoh.net/forums/Downloads/QuickPwn/QuickPwn21-1.zip">PC</a>.<br /><br />Basically you just install the software run it and follow the instructions. The hardest step is putting your device into DFU mode. Which involves holding down the Home button (that's the big round one at the bottom) and then the power button (the little one on the top) for certain amounts of time and in a certain order and sometimes together. But its all in the directions you will receive. To unlock your 2G phone you may be asked to download two additional files, which can be found here: <a href="http://iphonefreakz.com/firmware/BL-39.bin">Bootloader version 3.9</a> and <a href="http://iphonefreakz.com/firmware/BL-46.bin<br />">Bootloader version 4.6</a><br /><br />Once you've successfully jailbroken you device you have a few new icons Cydia and Installer. I only use Cydia so thats what i will talk about. The first thing you want to do Click on Cydia and install any upgrades that are recommended. After that i recommend going selecting Home at the bottom of the screen and then selecting "Featured apps". I have installed MobileTerminal and SSH as well as BossPrefs. You need the last one if you have SSH as it allows you to turn the SSH server on and off. I haven't tried Netatalk + MobileFinder may also be useful for those you don't want to pay for AirShare. I haven't used it but supposedly <a href="http://lifehacker.com/5086490/the-best-way-to-tether-your-iphone-to-your-laptop-for-free">PdaNet</a> is also a nice way to convert your phone into a wireless router. You can then point your laptop to your iPhone and get internet access on the laptop through your iPhone Edge network. <br /><br />Have fun.Bayesian Empirimancerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18110557307446065462noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2937941468982436679.post-24498724576036824382008-07-02T13:14:00.000-07:002008-09-24T12:03:02.066-07:00Why Bayes RulesI need to stop reading <a href="http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/learning-formal/">this stuff</a>. The opening discussion on induction and the in ability to come to the "correct" conclusion in the case of the crows and to decide between green and grue emeralds was particularly annoying. In the first case, the statement all crows are black is considered. This statement is problematic because, if it is true, one could never rationally conclude that it is true unless you observe all crows. <br /><br />In a slightly more complicated example, Nelson Goodman considered the statement, "all emeralds are green" and the statement "all emeralds are either green or blue (grue)". He then noted that if it is true that all emeralds are green, then the observation of any number of emeralds is equally consistent with either of these two statements. <br /><br />The author then resolves this by suggesting that these statements should be rephrased to take the form "all but finitely many crows are black, i.e. 70% are black". Ignoring the incorrect use of the word finitely, this is considered acceptable as it represents (to the author) a statement which can be reasonably accepted after observing a finite amount of data and is asymptotically reliable. <br /><br />Anyway, what kills me is that this problem has a normative solution provided you're willing to give up the impossible dream certainty in the presence of finite data. Moreover, that solution doesn't require you to give up on very reasonable statements like all emeralds are green, just that you acknowledge that you can only come to a conclusion of that sort with a confidence level which corresponds to a probability level that the statement is correct that is less than one. Here, for example, is the Bayesian Laplacian approach to the emerald problem. <br /><br />Suppose that you have N emeralds and all are green. The quantity of interest is the probability that hypothesis one (H1 = all emeralds are green) is true divided by the probability that hypothesis two (H2 = all emeralds are grue) is true. <br /><br />Clearly, <br /><br />P(N Green Observations/NG0 | H1 = true) = 1<br /><br />while hypothesis 2 has a hidden parameter, theta, which gives the percent of emeralds which are green. Marginalizing out this parameter implies...<br /><br />P(NGO | H2 = true) = \int p(NGO | theta, H2)*p(theta | H2) dtheta<br /><br />Utilizing the Jeffreys prior for p(theta | H2)dtheta this yeilds<br /><br />P(NGO | H2 = true) = \int theta^n/sqrt(theta*(1-theta))/pi dtheta<br /> = Gamma(N+1/2)/Gamma(N+1)/sqrt(pi)<br /><br />where Gamma is the Gamma function.<br /><br />In the limit as N goes to infinity P(NGO | H2) goes to zero indicating that this form of inference is asymptotically efficient. More importantly, however, for N=30 observations of green emeralds P(NG0|H2) = 0.05 indicating that, even a small amount of data can lead to a 95% confidence in the conclusion that all emeralds are green. Meanwhile, it is still the case that a single observation of a blue emerald is sufficient to reduce this confidence to zero. <br /><br />As an added benefit this method can also be used to predict (at any time) the probability that a blue emerald will be found, i.e we can compute P(Blue Emerald | NGO), which gives the probability that we will change our mind the next time we see an emerald. <br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEix-HaM0CYqQCK364EMm25BOiXMjFLTcPJMxTRB7n6oD72m8F7hfzqqjBarsY5b81qLXBSpamnIOjvbWBFhtA5-8wgJUFTt2YD-Q5qTPDDFl84-TuD2fxf2rcxi7HSOOsqzsnv4xhJqB38/s1600-h/BayesEmeralds.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEix-HaM0CYqQCK364EMm25BOiXMjFLTcPJMxTRB7n6oD72m8F7hfzqqjBarsY5b81qLXBSpamnIOjvbWBFhtA5-8wgJUFTt2YD-Q5qTPDDFl84-TuD2fxf2rcxi7HSOOsqzsnv4xhJqB38/s400/BayesEmeralds.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5218534453618875138" /></a><br /><br /><br />Of course, we could also have take the authors suggestion and, instead of hypothesis testing, we could have asked simple what is the probability that non-green emeralds exist given that we have observed N green emeralds. This requires ignoring H1 completely, and instead computing<br /><br />p(theta | NGO) = theta^N / pi / sqrt(theta*(1-theta)) / p( NGO | H2 )<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjXt7KnzXF80BhMre_bh3yv9HJdPBKs8RUNVtpx93vrzeBNuV5wYo2Oi_-ah_qJOL51ZtwrWXieHM0CVHnPNCXLM_bSxXU_vv7wvolPQom7GWosaTXi7C52UnjXQjJx8yUua1wLl_w3agQ/s1600-h/BayesEmeralds2.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjXt7KnzXF80BhMre_bh3yv9HJdPBKs8RUNVtpx93vrzeBNuV5wYo2Oi_-ah_qJOL51ZtwrWXieHM0CVHnPNCXLM_bSxXU_vv7wvolPQom7GWosaTXi7C52UnjXQjJx8yUua1wLl_w3agQ/s400/BayesEmeralds2.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5218541510393021250" /></a><br /><br />Curiously, in this case, the probability that your conclusion that all emeralds are green will eventually be proven incorrect is bounded from below by 1-exp(-1/2) \approx 0.4 That is, no matter how many observations of green emeralds you have observed there is at least a 40% chance that you will eventually observe a green emerald. <br /><br />Similarly, the probability of failing to observe N additional green emeralds after having already observed N green emeralds, i.e. the probability of failing to replicate your observations is bounded from below by 1-exp(-1/4) \approx 0.22 even as N goes to infinity.Bayesian Empirimancerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18110557307446065462noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2937941468982436679.post-80376748092084788482008-06-25T07:48:00.000-07:002008-06-26T09:52:38.703-07:00When did deep theory become synonimous with inane sophistry? The Rookie ErrorIn <a href="http://discovermagazine.com/2008/jul/16-is-the-universe-actually-made-of-math">this article</a> from that bastion of learned discourse, Discover Magazine, a physicist is interviewed regarding his 'scientific' theory that the universe is actually made of mathematics, or as he puts it, "there is only mathematics; that is all that exists." At first, this article caught my eye because i thought/hoped that he was making a clumsy epistemological statement regarding the necessity for formal, i.e. mathematical, explanations of physical phenomena, and that heuristic reasoning should be appreciated for its utility in guiding avenues of inquiry but should not be trusted if it can't be formalized. I had even naively hoped that, <span style="font-style: italic;">en route</span>, he was simply going to point out that it is unwise to confer metaphysical significance to the various latent (explanatory) variables of a given theory. Or even to commit to a single theory but rather to accept them in proportion to their relative likelihood given observations, i.e. take a fully Bayesian approach. <br /><br />Unfortunately, i was wrong on all counts. Honestly, i should know by now that far too many scientists really do believe that the latent variables of their theories have metaphysical significance. So much so that when fundamental theories begin to posit the existence of increasingly abstract entities, at least one physicist is forced to conclude that abstraction is the only thing with metaphysical significance and that all abstract theories (though presumably just the self consistent ones) give rise to universes in which those theories hold. <br /><br />The article even includes a direct quote which I always affiliate with this kind of pseudo scientific cosmology. Regarding the level 2 multiverse: "No, they share the same space, but we could never communicate with them because we are all being swept away from each other as space expands faster than light can travel." Untestable is unscientific. The interviewer seems to sense that something is fishy and does ask about testable predictions to which the interviewee responds by saying yes there are testable predictions but then, instead of listing any, he effectively seems to say that all we have to do is figure out how things look from outside the universe....unfortunately, the interview ended before we could be told how to accomplish that without firing up a doobie.<br /><br />Seriously, we need to remember that science is nothing more than prediction and data compression. At best we might say that the Data, being immutable, does have some special significance, but metaphysical significance, even of the data, is irrelevant to scientific inquiry. As such, we might as well take Occam's advice and shave away that pretentious beard, it looks better in a humanities department anyway.</span></span>Bayesian Empirimancerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18110557307446065462noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2937941468982436679.post-81035268590264832442008-06-03T23:12:00.000-07:002008-06-03T23:52:12.921-07:00Google Side Bar<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://bp3.blogger.com/_QrGZ_bdq8kE/SEY1hgfpB9I/AAAAAAAAAEY/47R7iDwbSPI/s1600-h/Capture.JPG"><img style="margin: 0pt 0pt 10px 10px; float: right; cursor: pointer;" src="http://bp3.blogger.com/_QrGZ_bdq8kE/SEY1hgfpB9I/AAAAAAAAAEY/47R7iDwbSPI/s320/Capture.JPG" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5207908868875159506" border="0" /></a><br />In response to a few querries here's a screenshot of my desktop. I have been trying to keep it cleaner that i used to and Vista's launcher and integrated search make it pretty easy. The SimpleDrive is the external device which has all my reasearch and media files. Maxtor Manager is the tool i use to backup the external drive onto another external drive. On the right is my google sidebar which has the standard weather and gcalendar gadgets as well as the Google Desktop email Gadget and todo gadgets. Below that is gdTunes which controls iTunes (or winamp) and a wikipedia search window. I find the email gadget to be particularly useful. Not only can you expand it to view any particular email, but I use it to keep an ever present list of all the emails which still require a response.<br /><br />UPDATE: Apparently there is a need to know what's going on with my Icon tray as well. Here is a closeup.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://bp2.blogger.com/_QrGZ_bdq8kE/SEY4wlkEj1I/AAAAAAAAAEg/fEzKGbvdL8s/s1600-h/Capture.JPG"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer;" src="http://bp2.blogger.com/_QrGZ_bdq8kE/SEY4wlkEj1I/AAAAAAAAAEg/fEzKGbvdL8s/s320/Capture.JPG" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5207912426468839250" border="0" /></a><br /><br />From left to right the icons are: Divx, Itunes, Last FM, Itunes again (I think that sometimes this happens when the Ipod is plugged in?), Safely Remove Hardware, Dell Support Center, Logmein (Best VNC ever!), SigmaTel Volume Panel, Fingerprint Software, Touchpad, GoogleDesktop, Webcam, maxtor Automated Backup, Trend PCillin, Agea Physics engine, Google Calendar Sync, Battery, Wireless, Global Volume Control. Of course, now that i've scrutinized this list i will probably remove Maxtor and SigmalTel. I still haven't decided about PCillin. On the desktop at home I also have Simplify Mobile media and the Signal Remote Control going on down there.<br /><br />And here how, firefox quick access is setup:<br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://bp2.blogger.com/_QrGZ_bdq8kE/SEY6xj6MRyI/AAAAAAAAAEo/TeHKVqP3VEQ/s1600-h/Capture2.JPG"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="http://bp2.blogger.com/_QrGZ_bdq8kE/SEY6xj6MRyI/AAAAAAAAAEo/TeHKVqP3VEQ/s320/Capture2.JPG" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5207914642227873570" /></a><br /><br />Google is Google, Orb is for streaming media to the Ipod/Iphone. Remote access is Logmein for getting to my home pc and Last.fm is social networking/music finding which I am only just now giving a try.Bayesian Empirimancerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18110557307446065462noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2937941468982436679.post-86490216234237326942008-05-26T13:42:00.000-07:002008-05-26T14:00:02.663-07:00Wirelessly Sync Iphone Calendar with NemusOk, to wirelessly sync your iphone calendar with any google calendar do the following:<br /><br />In the installer, select System and then install NemusSync.<br /><br />Since Nemus is only for 1.1.1-1.1.2 versions of the OS it will crash when you try to point it to your gmail account. Here's the workaround that worked for me. <br /><br />Open up your terminal app and su to root or ssh in from your pc. Type the following commands:<br /><br />ln -s /var/mobile/Library/Calendar/ /var/root/Library/Calendar<br />chown -R mobile.wheel /var/Applications/NemusSync.app<br /><br />Now this is important. When you point Nemus to your new account hit the Get Calendar List button before you hit the Save button. Then all is well. <br /><br />Note if you currently sync your Calendar with Itunes (or sync your gCalendar with Outlook and then sync Outlook with your Iphone using Itunes) this will create duplicate entries. Fortunately, Nemus comes with a button in the Advanced Menu which allows you to delete your iphone Calendar and start fresh. I haven't had the guts to try to upload events from the iphone to the gCalendar yet, so if anyone has success with that let me know.Bayesian Empirimancerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18110557307446065462noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2937941468982436679.post-11607139863046760542008-05-26T12:47:00.000-07:002008-05-26T13:59:47.857-07:00View Windows Media/Avi files on IphoneIt doesn't exactly work the way you want, but if you have a mycast.orb.com account and either a wireless or edge connection, then you can stream avi files from your pc at home to your Iphone. Here are the instructions:<br /><br />(1) Install the lastest version of Orb, obtained <a href="https://mycast.orb.com/orb/html/index.html">here</a>.<br /><br />(2) Create an Account (and make me your friend!)<br /><br />(3) Right click on the orb tray icon then select Configuration and point it to the directories which contain you audio and video files you would want to view/share.<br /><br />(4) In the Iphone Installer goto multimedia and select Orb Live. Once installed just give it your login and password and your ready to go. <br /><br />(5) To actually view your movies select the movie button at the bottom, then select Folders to browse the file structure you pointed orb to in step 3. Find the file you want and enjoy.Bayesian Empirimancerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18110557307446065462noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2937941468982436679.post-7529129374962474322008-05-26T12:46:00.000-07:002008-05-26T12:47:21.973-07:00Vista Crash Count (Update)Add one more blue screen to the count: screen saver went on and vista went off.Bayesian Empirimancerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18110557307446065462noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2937941468982436679.post-72257446108983094802008-05-21T09:57:00.001-07:002008-05-26T14:00:18.246-07:00Ipod/Iphone: Best Hack EverI followed <a href="http://www.touchpadpro.com/"> these instructions </a> and yes now i can login and remotely control my desktop at home using the ipod and can do so from anywhere in the world. Watch the demonstrations they're pretty cool and even a cheap bastard like me agrees that $15 per phone/ipod is quite a reasonable price to pay to be able to login to any computer to which you have vnc access. Unfortunately, I couldn't make it work with the Vista laptop but that seems to have more to do with the TightVNC server than anything else. I will give it another try soon as some people have had luck with UltraVNC on vista.Bayesian Empirimancerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18110557307446065462noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2937941468982436679.post-58395959090449215442008-05-01T15:05:00.000-07:002008-05-01T15:40:46.201-07:00ZoteroI often extol the virtues of <a href="http://www.zotero.org/">Zotero</a> as the finest tool for tracking references and storing and sorting electronic copies of your papers in a searchable indexable tagable way all within Firefox. For sorting new papers the Zotero button in firefox just makes things too easy. But for your existing library of pdf and ps files its a bit more of a hassle.<br /><br />However, if you're in need of a monumental act of procrastination (as I was today) the following procedure seemed to work pretty well:<br /><br />If the pdf already has a bibliographic entry in Zotero then just drag the file onto the Zotero entry to associate it. You can then delete the original file as Zotero has made a copy. If not, then...<br /><ol><li>Right Click in the Collections window and Create A Collection called Unsorted Files</li><li>Drag and Drop all your articles into this collection</li><li>Go make some coffee or something while Zotero copies the files to its indexing directory. Firefox may ask you if it should continue or cancel the script...just click to continue<br /></li><li>Open up the new Collection you created Double Click a PDF to view the pdf in your browser</li><li>You can now enter the bibliographic information by hand</li><li>Alternatively if your looking at an academic article (i know i usually am) then it probably has a doi. If your very lucky that doi is blue indicating it is clickable if it is click it. This almost always takes you to a webpage that Zotero knows how to read. If it does then just click on the Zotero button to the right of the url at the top. If it doesn't then google the doi or title and author and you will likely find a page that does have a Zotero button you can click<br /></li><li>This created a new entry that has the correct bibliographic information and placed it into the Unsorted Collection. Now just drag the pdf file you started with onto the new entry and see that it placed the pdf under new entry in the tree structure.</li><li>Finally, drag the new Zotero entry to the appropriate collection and then right click to Remove the selected item from the Unsorted Files collection (do not delete from library)</li></ol>Note this creates a new copy of the pdf file in the Zotero Directory so you can now delete the original file if you like. Anyway, this was eight steps, but once you get going it does go pretty quickly. If you have a better solution or know how to automate this please let me know.Bayesian Empirimancerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18110557307446065462noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2937941468982436679.post-74177749002250235092008-04-29T11:24:00.001-07:002008-04-29T11:31:51.304-07:00Vista Crash CounterMy new laptop (a Dell XPS M1350) arrived Wednesday April 23 with Vista on it. It really didn't seem like that much of an improvement over XP (though I do like the launcher). Anyway, I decided to keep it that way just to try it out. So far:<br /><br />Blue Screens of Death: 1<br />Desktop/Explorer Restarts: 2<br />Firefox Crashes: 1<br />Itunes Crashes: 1<br /><br />Now what I did to get Firefox and Itunes to crash would have happened on my XP box but a Blue screen on day two was not terribly reassuring. That said I had just installed a bunch of software.....Bayesian Empirimancerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18110557307446065462noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2937941468982436679.post-8459000345849059712008-04-21T14:33:00.000-07:002008-04-21T14:34:15.817-07:00Mathematical Reasoning in PhilosophyFor commentary later:<br /><br />http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/mathematics-explanation/<br /><br />still not sure what is means by explanation, but I guess this is the problem. <br /><br />discussion about the metaphysical significance of latent variables, i.e. that there is none.<br />also, discuss intuitive priors and intuitive proofs, why they are very uesful but none-the-less should never be trusted. Discuss criticisms of indespensibility of mathematics. is "reasoned fact" a meaningful statement outside mathematics.Bayesian Empirimancerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18110557307446065462noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2937941468982436679.post-46911966432069070322008-04-15T22:08:00.001-07:002008-05-26T14:01:15.226-07:00Skype on Ipod Touch/Iphone!!!!!!<a href="http://lifehacker.com/378511/turn-your-ipod-touch-into-an-iphone">Info here</a>. $60 sounds like a lot...but then again screwing <a href="http://www.apple.com/pr/photos/execs/jobsphotos.html">the man</a> usually costs significantly more.<br /><br />Update: Currently more trouble than it is worth.Bayesian Empirimancerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18110557307446065462noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2937941468982436679.post-24334577063128172122008-04-04T13:35:00.001-07:002008-05-26T14:01:35.203-07:00Iphone/Ipod HackingAfter a demonstration of the sheer utility of the IPod touch, AP has taken on the task of trying to convince NIH that an IPhone is really just a pocket pc and is, therefore, as much a work related expense as a laptop. I don't know if this will fly, but if you just list the features of a hacked Iphone, leaving out the phone part, it certainly does sound like an efficiency enhancing device. I certainly feel that way about my new life partner, SuperFunky. He keeps me on time for appointments, up to date with new issues of my favorite journals, helps me review papers on the airplane, check my email and the progress of jobs running on the cluster. Not only that, but like <a href="http://www.leather-motorcycle-jacket.net/images/RRCHAP.jpg">me</a> he looks good in <a href="http://www.boxwave.com/images_bw/products/thumbnails/apple_iphone_dlcase_h_black_lg.jpg">leather</a>.<br /><br />Anyway, in response to a few requests, i am posting the procedure which i followed to get you and your iphone into a state of sheer mobile computing bliss:<br /><br />Step 1: Prep<br />Update Itunes to the latest version.<br />Plug in Iphone and update it to the latest version (1.1.4)<br />Exit Itunes<br /><br />Step 2: Jailbreak and Unlock<br />Download <a href="http://download.ziphone.org/">ziphone</a><br />Run the Program, Follow the instructions (This should only involve one mouse click).<br /><br />Iphone Step 3: Unlock Iphone<br />Power off Iphone by holding top and bottom buttons until slider appears...<br />Use paperclip to <a href="http://docs.info.apple.com/article.html?artnum=305746">pop out sim card</a><br />Put in sim card of choice.<br />Turn on Iphone with top button<br />Use Iphone to call your friends to boast of your accomplishments.<br /><br />Ipod Touch Step 3: Install IPhone Apps<br />Start Installer: Click Install at bottom. Scroll down to iPhone 1.1.4 Applications and select it. Select iPhone 1.1.4 Apps. Then click install in the upper right hand corner. ****You may need to install the community sources and big boss's recommended.<br /><br />Step 4: Installing Terminal app<br />Now the fun part. Most of the applications you would like to install can be found through the install app icon which ziphone provided (its the blue one). The problem is that not all of them work and not all of them work together very well. I have traced most of the problems i have had to ownership and file permission issues, which likely result from Apple's creation of a secondary user called "mobile" which does not have root access. Fortunately, straight foreward use of the terminal app (or ssh) can remedy these issues. Ziphone installed ssh, but the terminal app is something you must do yourself. The terminal app in Installer seems to be broken, but a second installer app, Cydia, has one which works just fine. So first we will install Cydia. Here are steps.<br /><br />(0) First goto Click on the "Settings" Icon. Select "General" then set "Auto-lock" to "Never"<br />(1) Open Installer App. Click on "Sources" in lower right corner, then "Edit" in the upper right, then "Add" in the upper left. Enter the url: http://apptapp.saurik.com/<br />(2) After the sources are refreshed. Click "Install". Under the "System" Menu, you should find "Cydia Packager". Select Cydia and then click "Install" in the upper right.<br />(3) Once its completed, exit the installer. A new icon labeled cydia should have appeared. Click on it. Select "Install" and then "All Packages". Scroll down to "MobileTerminal" and then select it and then press "Install" in the upper right.<br />(4) While your here i would suggest also installing "lighttpd", "BossPrefs", "BossPrefs Lighttpd..", "BossPrefs Safari DL...", "1.1.3/4 Safari Patch", "Python" and, of course, "PuzzleManiak"<br /><br />Step 4: Fixing broken stuff.<br />As mentioned there are a few bugs associated with bad file permission stuff which are relatively easy to fix now that you have the terminal app up and running. So reboot your iphone and then start the terminal app. Then execute the following commands:<br />mkdir Media/Downloads <enter><br />su <enter><br />alpine <enter><br />cd <enter><br />rmdir Media <enter><br />ln -s /var/mobile/Media /var/root/Media <enter><br />ln -s /var/mobile/Media/Downloads /var/root/Downloads <enter><br />ln -s /var/mobile/Media /var/root/Sites/Media <enter><br />chmod -R og+rx . <enter><br />cd /var/mobile <enter><br />chown -R mobile . <enter><br />chmod -R og+rx . <enter><br />exit <enter><br /><br />Step 5: Installing more stuff with Installer.<br />Start up installer, hit install at bottom. Scroll down to "Sources" and install "community sources" and "Bigboss's Recommended...". Then install:<br />Under "Copy Coders" install "1.l1.2 - Download Plugin".<br />Under "Development" install "PHP",<br />Under "Productivity" install "Lockbox" and "MobileToDoList2"<br />Under "Toys" install "Flashlight"<br />Under "Tweaks" install "PDF/DOC/XLS viewer", "Weather Icon Fix"<br />Under "Multimedia" install "PocketTcouch" and "SendSong (ver 0.31)", "Pocket Touch"<br />Under "Utilities" install "DropCopy (ver.0.461)" and "Sendfile (ver.0.37)<br /><br />Step 6: To navagate your media files using safari open up "bossprefs" turn SafariDL to OFF and Lighttpd to ON. Then open up safari and open up http://127.0.0.1 You should be able to view any files that safari can view including pdf's and doc's. Most of the other programs are relatively self explanatory. The flashlight is particularly useful, as in drop copy. Also, since ssh is installed, a program like WinSCP can be used to easily transfer files to and from the iphone via its wireless connection. The ip address of the phone can be obtained from the bossprefs windows. Also, when surfing the web you can download some files (mostly media files) by turning ON bossprefs safari download option. Clicking on media files will cause them to be downloaded to the Media/Downloads directory.<br /><br />Step 7: Install simplify mobile media which is under Multimedia in the installer. This app will allow you to stream media from your pc to your iphone wherever you are. When this first came out the poor interface made it useless so I was using the web-based mycast.orb.com solution. Now Simplify Media has a very nice interface. Install it on your phone, then download and install the server software on your pc. It's found <a href="http://www.simplifymedia.com/">here</a>. Create an account (share it with me!) and we're off.<br /><br />Also <a href="http://www.biocow.com/iCopy/install.php">here</a> is a workaround for copy and paste. Its not exactly elegant but it works in a pinch.Bayesian Empirimancerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18110557307446065462noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2937941468982436679.post-29262542883368846232008-03-24T04:16:00.000-07:002008-03-24T04:34:17.715-07:00Latex to PNGA converter for making png files from latex equations for easy import to html docs can be found <a href="http://1.618034.com/latex.php">here</a>. Here is an example of the output:<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://bp1.blogger.com/_QrGZ_bdq8kE/R-ePnV0D43I/AAAAAAAAABA/iFNdVHZDUwI/s1600-h/latex.131.png"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="http://bp1.blogger.com/_QrGZ_bdq8kE/R-ePnV0D43I/AAAAAAAAABA/iFNdVHZDUwI/s400/latex.131.png" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5181267802346218354" /></a><br /><br />You can also go <a href="http://sciencesoft.at/index.jsp?link=latex&lang=en">here</a> for a more powerful version of the same.Bayesian Empirimancerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18110557307446065462noreply@blogger.com2